Waimea, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

445
FXHW60 PHFO 141354
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
354 AM HST Wed Jan 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving into the Hawaii region from the northwest
today will cause southerly winds to strengthen over all islands
through the day. A convergent band of clouds associated with the
remnants of the last cold front will spread bands of prefrontal
showers across the islands riding in along the southerly winds
ahead of the main cold front. The front will move swiftly from
west to east down the island chain with a brief period of wetting
rainfall starting tonight near Kauai and then spreading eastward
to the Big Island by Thursday afternoon. Easterly trade winds
bring a return to drier, cooler and more stable weather
conditions from Friday through Sunday. Another cold front will
likely move down the island chain, producing another round of wet
rainy weather, from next week Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery this morning shows bands of high level cirrus
clouds moving over the islands ahead of a cold front approaching
the Hawaiian Islands from the northwest. All islands will likely
see a decent amount of rainfall with this next frontal passage. A
few thunderstorms are possible mainly along the frontal band,
however the heaviest rainfall for each island will be brief due to
the rapidly moving frontal cloud band, limiting any flooding
concerns. The front will move swiftly from west to east down the
island chain, reaching Kauai by early evening, then through Oahu
just after midnight HST, and then on to Maui around sunrise, and
finally through the Big Island by Thursday afternoon.

Southerly winds ahead of this approaching cold front will
strengthen over the region today creating some wind gust impacts.
Southerly winds with this system will produce stronger wind gusts
of 40 to 50 mph range over mountain ridgelines and along north
and east sections of most islands today. A Wind Advisory was
issued to cover these impacts as these unusual southerly wind
directions tend to produce larger local scale impacts for these
areas. Strong winds just below advisory levels are also forecast
for Haleakala National Park on Maui with southerly winds forecast
to strengthen just below our summit wind advisory thresholds. The
highest summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa on the Big Island will
see the strongest winds with this event, and Wind Advisories were
issued this morning for both summits. Brief periods of icing
conditions are also possible on these higher summits by Thursday.

High pressure building in behind the front will herald a return to
drier and more stable northerly trade winds on Friday, becoming
more easterly trade winds from Saturday into Sunday. This drier
air moving in after frontal passage will produce much cooler
temperatures for all islands, especially during the overnight
hours when the drier atmosphere can more efficiently radiate heat
into outer space. These lower humidity levels and cooler overnight
to early morning temperatures will linger into the weekend.

Another round of wet weather remains in the long range forecast
for the middle of next week. The latest extended model forecast
guidance continues to show good agreement on another period of
cloudy skies and wet weather as yet another cold front moves
eastward down the island chain from next week Wednesday through
next Friday. Stay tuned as the island by island weather impacts
from this next frontal band will likely evolve over time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Gentle south to southeast winds across the islands will
strengthen through the morning and veer as strong southwesterly
winds are expected ahead of a cold front that is currently to the
northwest. The front will arrive across the western end of the
state tonight and then progress down the island chain. Showers are
expected along the frontal boundary, with prevailing MVFR
conditions as the front moves through. A few isolated cant be
ruled out either. Behind the front, breezy northwest winds will
fill in, along with drier conditions.

AIRMET TANGO is in effect over the entire state for tempo mod
turb FL260/360. No other AIRMETS are currently in effect.
However, AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration will likely be
needed this evening and tonight due to increasing clouds and
showers, starting on Kauai and moving east down the island chain.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong cold front will sweep from west to east across the
coastal waters from late today into Thursday, then stall near the
Big Island by Thursday afternoon. Southerly to southwesterly winds
ahead of the front will become gusty today, and the Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) that was previously in effect has been extended in
time and expanded in area to include most coastal water zones due
to the gusty winds today. Winds will shift to become northerly
behind the front as it moves down the island chain. Beginning
tonight, an extra large northwest swell will elevate seas above
SCA thresholds once again just as wind speeds decrease. The SCA
remains in effect through Thursday for now, but will likely need
to be extended in time as seas remain elevated through at least
Friday night. A passing high pressure system far north of the
islands will bring back easterly trade winds across Hawaiian
waters from Friday through Sunday. Winds will weaken and veer
from a more southeasterly direction over the northwestern waters
by Monday as another cold front approaches the islands from the
northwest.

The northwest (310-330 degree) swell that peaked yesterday will
continue to gradually fade today, though surf heights are expected
to remain above advisory levels along exposed north and west
facing shores. The next extra large, long period northwest
(310-330 degree) swell will build into the region late tonight
into Thursday, likely producing another round of warning level
surf along exposed north and west facing shores lasting through
Friday. Surf along north and west facing shores will then
linger near advisory levels Saturday before another reinforcing
northwest swell briefly boosts surf heights back to near warning
levels on Sunday and Sunday night. The current High Surf Advisory
remains in effect today, but this will need to be upgraded to a
High Surf Warning by tonight to account for the incoming swell.

Surf along east facing shores will remain small through most of
this week due to shifting wind directions from the passing fronts.
However, some east facing shores sensitive to northerly swells
may experience a slight uptick in surf heights this weekend as the
fading northwesterly swell becomes more northerly. South shores
will see a slight bump from wind wave energy today due to the
strengthening south to southwesterly winds. Otherwise, no
noteworthy swells are expected for the next few days.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening north and west
facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and north facing
shores of Maui.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for most north and east
sections of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai and Maui.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Big Island Summits of
Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for most Hawaiian
Coastal Waters and Channels.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Shigesato
MARINE...Vaughan